Analysts expect Nifty to rise up by to 6 per cent in six months, with intermittent corrections likely due to global factors.
Top government officials in New Delhi have started discussions with stakeholders ranging from shipping and container companies to export promotion councils to understand the impact of the Iran-Israel tensions and plan ahead. Inter-ministerial talks are also being lined up amid the crisis situation in West Asia, sources confirmed. While the crude flows are not directly under any threat, elevated oil prices remain a concern, according to officials.
Leaders of Pakistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan agreed to strengthen their ties for the mutual benefit of their peoples, as well as for regional peace and prosperity. The understanding was reached at the Pakistan-Turkey-Azerbaijan trilateral summit in Lachin, Azerbaijan, attended by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif alongside presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ilham Aliyev. Azerbaijan announced a USD 2 billion investment in Pakistan's economy. Turkey expressed support for the ceasefire between Pakistan and India and hopes that it evolves into permanent peace.
With the fight now having been taken to the seizure of nuclear plants, it is one more warning to Europe that this prolonged war could end up with disastrous consequences, observes Rashme Sehgal
Many students are now looking at opportunities in the UK, Australia, and Singapore due to lower cost of living and less interference from the government.
From the Sensex basket, Tata Motors, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Power Grid, NTPC, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance and Asian Paints were the major laggards.
'And this will persist given the two-and-a-half-front threat we face.'
US strikes on Iran's three main nuclear facilities have once again raised concerns that Tehran might shut down the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world's most critical chokepoints, through which a fifth of global oil and gas supply flows.
'With the US having entered the war, raising the risks of a wider conflict, those impacts could be even more damaging.'
Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach $3,150 per ounce in the international market by December 2025, up around 19.1 per cent from its current level of $2,645, according to a recent report in Business Standard. Domestically, gold is trading at Rs 76,018 per 10 grams after delivering a remarkable 21.9 per cent return in the past year.
The stock and bond markets told Trump firmly that any idea of isolating China would lead to harming the US economy and this forced Trump to backtrack, points out Aakar Patel.
India and the US have collaborated through the past one month on launching a powerful satellite; are commencing joint production of GE Aerospace's F414 jet engines in India; India is participating in a massive three week-long military exercise in the Western Pacific, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The ministry of finance is likely to assume crude oil price to remain within $85 per barrel while estimating subsidies for the Interim Budget 2024-25 (FY25), to be presented on February 1. Brent crude prices moved up on Thursday, ending at $78.9 per barrel. Crude oil and cooking gas prices, which move in tandem, impact fertiliser and cooking gas subsidies, constituting 53 per cent of the government's total subsidies.
'...rectification has to happen then and there, and that takes additional time.'
'I hear that there are some 10,000 Indians stuck in Iran, including nearly 4,000 students from Kashmir. But, I do not know any of them. Here I am all by myself and the embassy has asked me not to venture out far from my hotel. People here are going about their daily lives despite the bombings'
The United States will deploy additional fighter jets and Navy ships to West Asia in order to defend Israel, the US Department of Defence said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu termed it the 'largest cooperation project in our history', one that would 'change the face of the Middle East, Israel, and impact the entire world'.
Global financial markets are wrong in hoping that the worst is over in geopolitical crises such as the Iran-Israel conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, in a recent note to investors called 'GREED & fear'. While most investors and the media are focused on United States (US) Federal Reserve policy and the "endless chatter" of Fed governors, Wood believes the news flow in the financial sphere "pales into complete insignificance" compared with the "tectonic shifts" going on in geopolitics.
The new Samvat 2080 is viewed as a year of hope for industrial and precious metals. A key reason is the expectation of US interest rates peaking, followed by a reduction in the coming months. Regarding crude oil, its trajectory depends more on how the situation unfolds in West Asia.
'Fears in Washington began to intensify when it was realised that subsequent Pakistani and Indian attacks on major military facilities -- which were significant in terms of geographic scope and intensity -- could rapidly take both sides to where neither actually wanted to go.' 'The US objective was to stop the fighting as soon as possible. Everything else was secondary.'
As Donald Trump registered a historic comeback in the US presidential election, many former Indian diplomats on Wednesday concurred that the India-US ties will "continue to grow" from strength to strength, even as some of them cautioned that Trump is "highly unpredictable" and New Delhi will have to "wait and watch" to see what position he adopts going forward.
'Given that the situation is quickly escalating, such attacks will affect the flow of crude in the short term from West Asia' Subhayan Chakraborty and Dhruvaksh Saha report.
'The devastating Indian Air Force strikes on the night of May 9-10 exposed Pakistan's vulnerabilities.' 'If these had continued, it would have further degraded Pakistan's ability to continue with air operations.'
The IDF noted that the strikes are being conducted in response to "relentless attacks" from Iran and its proxies since October 7, adding that Israel has the "right and the duty to respond."
Snapping the two months slide, the country's merchandise exports rose marginally by 0.5 per cent to $34.58 billion in September while trade deficit narrowed to $20.78 billion. According to official data released on Wednesday, imports increased by 1.6 per cent to $55.36 billion in September compared to $54.49 billion in the year-ago period. The trade deficit, or the gap between imports and exports, was $20.8 billion during the same month last year.
Though he does not know what New Delhi is intending to do, Berlin would "welcome any engagement", he added.
Acutely conscious that he's left with less than four years to create his legacy, Trump is undoubtedly a man in a hurry, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'A 10 to 15 per cent allocation to gold in portfolios reduces risk without compromising on potential returns.'
Earlier in response to Iran's rocket barrage on Israel on Tuesday night the UN Chief had said, "I condemn the broadening of the Middle East conflict with escalation after escalation. This must stop. We absolutely need a ceasefire.."
From the outcome of the general elections and then Union Budget to tepid corporate earnings in the September 2024 quarter (Q2-FY25), sticky inflation and Reserve Bank of India's stance on interest rates, extreme weather conditions, Indian stock markets have braved it all in calendar year 2024.
'Our fractured world has been embroiled in wars and hatred, and many sessions reflect these concerns.'
'We are too important to want to be paired with Pakistan but too intensely connected to it to successfully detach ourselves,' asserts Aakar Patel.
Global financial markets are not yet fully factoring in any escalation in the Israel-Palestine geopolitical conflict, said Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies in his latest weekly note to investors, GREED & fear. The pertinent point about ongoing events in West Asia from a financial market perspective, according to him, is that, despite much talk about a pending ground invasion of Gaza, no such invasion has yet happened. "This is beginning to make GREED & fear wonder if it is ever going to happen.
India and China have made "some progress" in disengagement, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said on Sunday, describing it as a "welcome" move which opens up the possibility that other steps could happen.
Escalation of the conflict in West Asia between Israel and Iran has had a direct impact on the energy markets, and more broadly on the financial markets as well as the global economy.
The Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025 season has been officially suspended due to escalating military tensions between India and Pakistan.
'Even now, investors are not bothered about the war but are more concerned whether it will remain localised or not.' 'In case things are contained, markets can stage a bounce back in the next few days.'
With these propositions in mind, India started "some exploratory discussions" he said, adding that it started during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Italy during G-7, and then during his visit to Moscow.
'The first and most basic responsibility of any government is to protect its people from external threats and internal harm.' 'Budget 2025-2026 has to focus on meeting this responsibility,' asserts R Jagannathan.
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